Bill Connelly of Rock M Nation, and Nick Witthaus of Tigerboard.com, both Missouri football fan Web sites, took some time to answer a few questions about tonight's Nebraska-Missouri game, which could be drenched with heavy rain. Click here to see Mike and I's take on the game, which is shaping up to be a really good one.
Campus Confidential: How will the rain factor into tonight's game, should the skies open up? Does it give any team a decided advantage?
Bill Connelly: How the weather will impact the game depends on wind. If it's just rain, then on field turf that could benefit the better passing team, which would be Missouri. The route-runners know where they are going and can take more confident steps, while a defender having to react is more likely to slip a bit. Missouri has had no trouble throwing in wet conditions in the past. However, if the wind gets involved (at the moment, it is not supposed to be too windy), then it benefits whoever is better at keeping the ball on the ground. That would be Nebraska. In the end, more than any strengths or weaknesses in the running or passing games, the weather will simply benefit the team that can hold onto the ball better and not make any disastrous mistakes on special teams.
Nick Witthaus: If there is significant rain tonight, traditional wisdom says it favors the team with the stronger running game. That would probably be Nebraska. However, I'm not sure Missouri's passing attack will be slowed down by anything except the heaviest of downpours. So, I don't think rain gives either team a decided advantage.
CC: Nebraska lost a tough one at No. 5 Virginia Tech and Missouri's toughest opponent has been Illinois (which has been down through five weeks). Is Nebraska more battle tested and will this help the Huskers tonight?
BC: If we are talking about just 2009, then Nebraska is obviously the more battle-tested team. Their tight loss to Virginia Tech is more impressive than any win either team has procured to this point. But Missouri still has players like Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, Jaron Baston, and Derrick Washington, all of whom played significant roles on the last two Missouri teams. They have played in far more big-time battles than anybody on the current Nebraska team, but that experience is obviously balanced out by the inexperience of Blaine Gabbert and some members of both the offensive and defensive line.
NW: I don't think I'd call Nebraska more battle tested. Rankings at this time of year are highly subjective, so a close loss at Va. Tech doesn't mean that Nebraska has proven itself. If anything, it demonstrates that they aren't capable of closing out a win. Missouri had to overcome a bad first half to beat a decent Bowling Green team. That kind of thing really helps a young quarterback like Blaine Gabbert gain confidence quickly.
CC: How should Bo Pelini and his staff attack Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri pass attack?
BC: In the three games against FCS competition this year, Missouri has faced two different defensive strategies. For the most part, Illinois and Nevada ganged up on the run and tried to make Blaine Gabbert beat them. He did just that. Bowling Green, on the other hand, played a cover-4 defense most of the time, and Gabbert didn't handle it well. BGSU went up 20-6 in that game primarily because Gabbert got happy feet and started leaving the pocket if his first or second option wasn't available -- he barely played in either his senior year of high school (injury) or his freshman year at Mizzou (backup), and his pocket presence is still a work in progress. In the second half, Gabbert grew more comfortable and brought Mizzou on three straight touchdown drives to end the game, so he is probably more experienced and capable of handling a "drop seven into coverage" type of situation. That, however, has clearly been the most successful strategy against him this season, and Nebraska would probably be smart to give that a shot.
NW: Every offense is going to have to give [Ndamukong] Suh extra attention. The Missouri offensive line has looked shaky at times, so if Nebraska blitzes a lot, they might be able to get to Gabbert and force some bad decisions.
CC: Rate Nebraska and Missouri through four games.
BC: I had pretty high expectations (higher than most, anyway) for Missouri this year, and they have more-or-less met those expectations thus far. Nebraksa has actually looked a bit better than I expected, though their projected weaknesses -- passing game against decent defenses and giving up big plays in the secondary -- appear that they might still be problematic. I expected Missouri to win this game by a couple of touchdowns in the offseason, but I'm seeing a much closer game now.
NW: Using a letter grading system, I'd give Missouri a B and Nebraska a B+ at this point in the season.
CC: Overall prediction for tonight?
BC: I always go with what my stats tell me (http://www.rockmnation.com/2009/10/7/1072021/nebraska-beyond-the-box-score), and in this case, they're projecting an extremely tight Missouri win. Since the weather doesn't give an obvious advantage to one team or the other, we will go with that. Missouri by 1.
NW: I'm predicting a relatively close, low scoring (for these teams) game tonight. Missouri 24, Nebraska 21.
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